Fund Performance

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Market Commentary - February 2025

Global markets came off the boil in February amid a volley of erratic policy signals from the world’s biggest economy. US President Trump and certain members of his administration doubled down on their incendiary, and sometimes conflicting rhetoric on trade, geopolitics and domestic affairs, which stoked widespread anxiety about the potential economic fallout.

US investors were further unsettled by patchy earnings reports from tech heavyweights like Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, even as they continued to plough eyewatering sums into AI. Meanwhile, the economy looked in danger of losing its footing as inflationary pressures picked up and consumer confidence fell sharply. Not even Nvidia’s relatively robust results could spark joy, with the Nasdaq slipping into the red for the year.

Things weren’t much better at home. Unemployment hit its highest level in five years, while lacklustre corporate earnings reflected ongoing economic headwinds. The market was particularly hard on companies that undershot expectations, with nervy investors quick to trim positions. The RBNZ’s 50-basis point rate cut was welcomed though no great surprise. However, its suggestion that there were more to come and probably sooner than expected was music to many ears.

Across the Tasman, Australia’s central bank (RBA) finally jumped on the monetary band wagon with a 25-basis point rate cut of its own. However, it was quick to quell hopes of a repeat performance, with the RBA Governor warning about the potential impact of US tariffs on barely contained inflation, saying they’d be scrutinising the data before further decisions. This was almost immediately followed by a hotter-than-expected jobs report, which went down like a lead balloon with investors.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished February down -1.4%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq dropped by -4.0%. The NZX 50 fell -3.0% over the month, while the ASX 200 lost -4.2%.

The UK’s FTSE 100 continued to buck broader trends, gaining 1.6% in February despite mixed economic signals. The economy unexpectedly grew (by a whisker) in the final quarter of 2024, and interest rates eased further. Conversely, inflation fired up again in January, with prices rising at their fastest pace in ten months, and the Bank of England halved its 2025 growth outlook.

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